Baccarat is the king of casino games around the world. More than 80% of the world’s betting comes from baccarat, and its popularity is beyond imagination. Other games add up to only 20%.
However, about 64% of baccarat bets come from VIP baccarat, and many high rollers like to try their luck on baccarat.
why am i telling you this Because we know players are usually interested in numbers and stats! So, we decided to take a deep dive into this most popular casino game. This is not to teach you how to beat baccarat, but to provide some facts and figures to deepen your understanding of the game.
Starting Hands and Naturals
We ignore suits in baccarat, so there are 13 possible cards in the shoe: 1 (A), 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, PHL63 7, 8, 9 and four 0s (10, J, Q and K). Whenever the shoe is dealt, there is a 1/13 chance of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, or 9, and a 4/13 chance of 0 (we ignore the chance of A for now. Minor changes are caused by removing a card). With 13 possibilities, there are 169 different starting hand combinations for either the dealer or the player. 25 combinations of hands with 0 (also known as baccarat); all other possible starting hands (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, and 9) have exactly 16 combinations, namely They are equally likely.
Number of combinations Probability
0 25 14.80%
1 16 9.50%
2 16 9.50%
3 16 9.50%
4 16 9.50%
5 16 9.50%
6 16 9.50%
7 16 9.50%
8 16 9.50%
9 16 9.50%
169 100%
Also note the odds for the follow PHL63ing starting hands:
Any natural card (8 or 9) has a 16.25% chance of winning
1.79% chance of getting any natural card (8 or 9) and a tie
0.90% chance of natural 8 losing to natural 9
15.35% chance to lose to talent without talent
The probability that the Banker and Player have no natural cards is 65.72%
100.00%
You’ll notice that about a third of the chances are natural cards (that is, either or both of the banker and player get an 8 or 9), and about a two-thirds chance that the game continues The player or player who proceeds is neither 8 nor 9.
No natural cards, four cards form a game
What if Zhuang Hexian didn’t have a natural card? If both the dealer and player have a 6 or 7, no more cards are dealt. Her PHL63e are the probabilities of happening:
Player Banker Winning Odds
7 7 draw 0.90%
7 6 players 0.90%
6 7 Banker 0.90%
6 6 draw 0.90%
3.59%
Since there is a 34.28% chance that either side has a natural, and a 3.59% chance that a hand consists of four cards (both sides have a 6 or a 7, two cards each), we can conclude that there is a 37.87% chance that a There is a 62.13% chance that the hand will consist of four cards (the banker deals four cards to the bank and the player in total), so there is a 62.13% chance that the fifth card will be dealt.
fifth card
Assuming there are no natural cards, and this is not a four card (6 or 7), then a fifth card (perhaps a sixth) must be dealt. The math gets complicated here, PHL63so it’s best to just give a summary of each player’s odds of winning and losing:
Player wins Player wins Tie Banker wins Total
7 70.63% 17.57% 11.79% 100.00%
6 53.06% 17.57% 29.37% 100.00%
5 44.23% 12.78% 42.99% 100.00%
4 39.83% 12.09% 48.08% 100.00%
3 37.50% 10.02% 52.48% 100.00%
2 35.86% 9.33% 54.81% 100.00%
1 34.92% 8.64% 56.45% 100.00%
0 34.31% 8.30% 57.39% 100.00%
Of course, these are the odds for the player to win each starting hand (from 7 to 0) against any dealer card when the fifth card is dealt. Showing how each player card compares to each banker card is overly complicated, but it’s definitely a good start.
Interestingly, you can never completely despair, even if the banker’s 7 is 0 (the worst cas PHL63e outside of natural numbers), the player still has a 15.4% chance of winning, and a 7.7% chance of showing a tie, the escaped The probability is 23.1%. not bad!
the best choice
It is well known that a banker bet is slightly better than a player bet for experienced players, but why?
In a game of baccarat that uses eight decks, there are a total of 416 cards in the shoe. With a hand of 4, 5 or 6 cards, there are an incredible 4,998,398,275,503,360 (almost 1000 to the power of 5) different combinations. Among these thousands of combinations, there are 2,292,252,566,437,888 combinations that win the banker, 2,230,518,282,592,256 combinations that win the player, and only 475,627,426,473,216 combinations that win the draw.
